How important is it to you for the Yankees to win (or try to win) the division?
Ben: Fortunately for the Yankees, baseball is not like football. Last year the Colts rested their starters the last 2 games of the season and after an early exit in the playoffs people blamed the fact their starters hadn't played in a meaningful game for 3 weeks. In baseball if the Yankees wanted to rest Jeter for a couple of games for example, it's not going to hurt his effectiveness in the post season (only his horrible decline in play will hurt his postseason). So, if the Yankees feel there best bet for the playoffs is to ensure their health, then that's what they should do. While playing the Twins in a 5 game series in Minnesota is pretty scary if the Yankees don't win the division, I'd prefer that scenario with a healthy team over playing the Rangers with some guys dinged up.
Jeter has really showed his age this year, Arod has been on the DL recently, Swisher is banged up, Teixeira has a hurt thumb and toe, and the Yankees rotation is weakened to the point where they better be damn sure it's set to their liking before the post season. Winning the division and getting the home field advantage is always great, and while I don't think the Yankees should be taking out fully healthy and capable players or skipping starts, they shouldn't be risking the future health of some of their key players just to have a chance to win the division.
Jeff: The Rays have a much easier schedule down the road than the Yankees (two series with Boston, one with Toronto), so more likely than not the Rays are going to take the division. However, this does not bother me.
Why doesn't this bother me? Because when one looks at the prospect of playing either the Twins (who don't have that #1 ace in their staff) or the Rangers (who the Yankees would have to face Cliff Lee twice in a 5 game series, the same Cliff Lee who shut down the Yankees twice in the World Series last year), I would rather face the Twins. Obviously, these aren't the same Twins the Yankees have time and time again beaten in the division series over the past decade. Even playing at Target Field this year, as opposed to a warm Metrodome, will play a major factor. Still, when your top starters are Francisco Liriano (who has admittedly been good, but isn't necessarily an ace) and Carl Pavano (Carl Pavano? Really?), this is a much preferable situation than having to face Cliff Lee twice in a 5 game series. This is especially crucial when the Yankees have starting rotation issues past Sabathia (who will be opposing Lee in the division series).
Why does this all matter? Because the Twins, out of nowhere, have an incredible record. At this point in fact (9/23), the Twins and Yankees both stand at 92-60. This is important because the Rangers, who stand at 84-67, will be playing the winner of the AL East. Being as I would prefer the Yankees and Twins to face off in the first round, winning the wild card isn't the end of the world
Why doesn't this bother me? Because when one looks at the prospect of playing either the Twins (who don't have that #1 ace in their staff) or the Rangers (who the Yankees would have to face Cliff Lee twice in a 5 game series, the same Cliff Lee who shut down the Yankees twice in the World Series last year), I would rather face the Twins. Obviously, these aren't the same Twins the Yankees have time and time again beaten in the division series over the past decade. Even playing at Target Field this year, as opposed to a warm Metrodome, will play a major factor. Still, when your top starters are Francisco Liriano (who has admittedly been good, but isn't necessarily an ace) and Carl Pavano (Carl Pavano? Really?), this is a much preferable situation than having to face Cliff Lee twice in a 5 game series. This is especially crucial when the Yankees have starting rotation issues past Sabathia (who will be opposing Lee in the division series).
Why does this all matter? Because the Twins, out of nowhere, have an incredible record. At this point in fact (9/23), the Twins and Yankees both stand at 92-60. This is important because the Rangers, who stand at 84-67, will be playing the winner of the AL East. Being as I would prefer the Yankees and Twins to face off in the first round, winning the wild card isn't the end of the world
Steve: I don't think the Yankees should take these last couple weeks of the season lightly. Of course, there's no sense in shoving Jeter or Posada or whomever out there when they're feeling a little tender, but these are big games coming up. The Yanks have had the luxury of taking it slow with injuries over the course of the last few months, as they had built a decent lead early in the year and were still able to field a great lineup even while missing key players. Now, it's time to get the A-team on a roll heading into the Big Show.
Pettitte, who looked sharp in his final AAA tuneup against the Orioles, needs to see a couple quality starts. Someone's gotta step up and make us all comfortable with handing him that 3rd spot in the playoff rotation (lookin' at you, Phil). Swish has gotta feel comfortable playing a few games back to back. Gardner's gotta get back on base and flying. It's a lot to ask, but if it all falls into place the Yanks are gonna be tough to deal with.
Which seed they end up with doesn't concern me a whole lot. They have handled the Twins, here and there, quite easily in the past, though most of those games have been tight. The Rays don't have a pitcher the Yanks can't handle. And Texas, who are dealing with some lingering boo-boos of their own, will be largely inexperienced on the big stage. That said, these are all great teams that have kept pace all year and would be scary to face in a short series.
By Max
ReplyDeleteIf looking at past wild cards is any indication, there is certainly nothing to worry about in being the wild card. Actually, wild card teams have experienced slightly more success than division winners in terms of series won (29-26 according to wiki). In terms of world series victories, wild card teams have won 4 times in 16 years of existence, making them statistically EXACTLY even with division winners (1/4 teams are wild card). If history is our guide, winning the wild card is just fine.
But should the wild card be allowed this level of prosperity?
This brings me to a the suggestion of adding a second wild-card team to the equation. The catch would be that the two wild card teams would have to face off in a one game playoff to enter the post-season.
Let's look at a few of the outcomes of such a system:
1) Division races like the Rays-Yanks would be restored to cut-throat levels.
2) Wild card teams would actually pay a penalty for not winning their division. Not only would their spot not be guaranteed, they would have to pitch their ace in the playoff game thus hurting their chances come divisional series play
3) Fighting for the #1 overall seed would more envious as you get to play a depleted wild-card team
4) The "play-in game" would receive unbelievable, can't miss, drama and media attention. (Picture a Yankee's-Red Sox play in game... wow)
I know historically it's really no difference if you win the division or not, and whatever difference there is is mitigated by the fact the division winner is generally a better team and should win more.
ReplyDeleteI think you have to do a case by case basis though. I don't think the Yankees should go for it but theoretically it could work out where it would be advantageous for a team to win the division. A team like Colorado in a unique park for instance would likely benefit more from homefield advantage.
Regardless, I agree with what you said and plan on talking about your 2nd wild card team in a post tomorrow!